System Dynamics Model in Estimating Manpower Needs in Dental Public Health

System Dynamics Modeling, is the computerized model based on the conceptualized interactions of multiple factors within the study system. The present study applied the method of system dynamics modeling in estimation of man power need in dental public health from 1995 to 2015. The base line information derived from the National Oral Health Survey in 1984, 1989 and 1994. The results of projection suggested that the appropriate number of total dental personnel were 6,164 in 1995 and 11,970 in 2015, which leaded to the minimum dental personnel population ratio for dental services in Thai people of 1:9,636 in 1995 and 1: 5,813 in 2015. Three scenarios were developed for classifications of the roles of dentist and dental nurse according to the levels of simple tasks delegated to dental nurse. Proportion of requirement for dentists form the total dental personnel in 2015 decreased from 75% in the conventional scenario to 57% and 45% in the more progressive alternatives. The study indicate the possibility of oversupply of dental personnel in the future and the need for adjustment of the roles of dentist and dental nurse.